Influx of mainland Chinese and talent offset emigration wave in Hong Kong

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August 15, 2024

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Influx of mainland Chinese and talent offset emigration wave in Hong Kong

Midyear population stands at 7,531,800, down by 0.1 per cent from 12 months ago, latest census shows

The latest official data reveals that an influx of immigrants and talent from mainland China, coupled with a slight increase in births, has counterbalanced a wave of emigration in Hong Kong. On Thursday, the Census and Statistics Department reported that the midyear population stood at 7,531,800—a decrease of 4,300 people, or 0.1 percent, from the previous year.

The government attributed this decline to an unusual situation where a significant number of Hong Kong residents living abroad returned to the city after pandemic travel restrictions were lifted early last year, temporarily inflating the comparison figure.

“This situation gradually returned to normal in the latter part of 2023, leading to a slight decrease in population by the end of 2023 and mid-2024 compared to mid-2023,” the report noted.

Despite this, the population still grew compared to the end of 2023, and the current figure is the second-highest recorded. Authorities highlighted the success of various initiatives aimed at attracting talent and labor, which resulted in a “significant inflow of individuals from mainland China and other parts of the world to Hong Kong in the first half of 2024.”

During the 12 months leading up to June, the city experienced a net outflow of 30,200 residents, following a substantial net inflow of 143,000 people from mid-2022 to mid-2023, driven by the new talent scheme and the resumption of normal travel.

Net outflows began to pick up from mid-2019 to mid-2020, when the anti-government protests erupted.

The city’s latest net outflow figure was the third-highest in a decade after peaking at 89,200 from mid-2020 to mid-2021 when Britain launched a bespoke immigration pathway in response to Beijing’s imposition of the national security law. The net outflow of residents then dropped to 60,000 in 2022.

According to the latest data, 44,000 mainlanders arrived in Hong Kong through one-way permits, the highest number in five years, effectively offsetting the outflow of Hong Kong residents. The one-way permit scheme allows 150 mainlanders to settle in Hong Kong daily.

Over the past 12 months, the number of births increased to 34,400, up 5 percent from last year’s 32,600. Meanwhile, the number of deaths decreased to 52,400, down from 54,600 recorded in mid-2023.

In 2022, Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu’s administration implemented various measures to attract talent and counteract the emigration wave. These policies included the Top Talent Pass Scheme, launched in December 2022, which is open to candidates who earned more than HK$2.5 million (US$320,000) in the past 12 months and graduates from the world’s top 100 universities.

As of July 31, the Immigration Department reported receiving over 93,000 applications for the scheme, with more than 73,000 approvals. Of these, 60,300 successful applicants have already arrived in the city. Combined with other policies, Hong Kong welcomed over 130,000 people by June, surpassing the government’s target of bringing in 105,000 people over three years.

Paul Yip Siu-fai, chair professor of population health at the University of Hong Kong, noted that the emigration wave had not slowed down. "The recent data shows that the number of Hongkongers leaving the city remains significant," he stated.

The British government reported that approximately 144,400 Hongkongers had arrived in the UK by March 2024 since the launch of its scheme in January 2021. Canada and Australia have also introduced bespoke citizenship pathways for Hongkongers.

Yip added that the increase in births was not particularly significant. He also noted that the birth figures include babies under one year old who were born outside of Hong Kong and later moved to the city. The latest birth numbers do not yet reflect the impact of the city leader’s policy announced last October, offering HK$20,000 for each new child born in Hong Kong to a permanent resident parent.

Net outflow and inflow f Hong Kong residents over decade
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